Fantasy Football WR Tiers 2023 Wide receiver draft strategy rankings sleepers
Fantasy Football WR Tiers 2023 Wide receiver draft strategy rankings sleepers
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With 100 receivers listed in our initial 2023 fantasy WR rankings, the pa s-happy nature of todays NFL enhances the notion that wide receiver is the deepest position in fantasy football. Relative to some of the other position groups youll draft, the deviation between top-tier and mid-tier wideouts isnt nearly as significant as the gap between the top-tier and mid-tier RBs and TEs. Thats not to diminish the value of the top-tier WRs, but with most tier 1 and tier 2 wideouts gone by the third round, the majority of your WR draft strategy is centered around finding high-upside sleepers and ADP gems.So, whats the best draft strategy for the wide receiver position? There's no set answer to that question, but understanding how traditional fantasy rankings break up into tiers is crucial in your hopes of winning draft night. As always, the goal is to leave your fantasy draft extracting as much value as you can.Lets say a bunch of your leaguemates expend their first-round draft capital on WRs, meaning RBs Bijan Robinson or Saquon Barkley are still on the board at the end of round one. While you might have entered draft day expecting to take a WR in the first round, snagging either RB and opting for a WR in round two yields the most bang for your buck.DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Each player makes a case to be drafted at a certain point, so its foolish to have a "do not draft list" and be fixated on avoiding players you might not be over the moon on. By utilizing tiers and not reaching for players who could potentially still be on the board in the following rounds, youre set up for draft night succe s.2023 STANDARD RANKINGS: | | | | | | | | Unlike seasons past where running backs dominated the first round, a quick peek at Fantasy Pros ADP tells a different tale this season. As it currently stands, six WRs are projected to come off the board in the first round of 12-team standard and PPR scoring leagues, with 11 wideouts gone by pick 25.2023 PPR RANKINGS: | | | | | | | | When it comes to understanding how deep the WR position really is, 76 wideouts scored at least 60 standard points last season compared to just 55 RBs ama sing 60-plus points. That said, by no means are we saying you should prioritize other positions and focus on selecting WRs later in your draft; rather its worth keeping those high-upside, mid-to-late round sleepers in the back of your mind. Lower-tiered WRs have a higher fantasy floor than the lower-tiered RBs, so it pays to have a set list of some underrated sleepers to target in the middle-to-late rounds.2023 FANTASY SLEEPERS | | | | | Of course, theres never an exact science as to how snake drafts will unfold, but sticking to your tier list and trying to make as many smart choices as po sible with value in mind never hurts. Every pick you make sets up the next, so it's critical to have a plan for how your draft is unfolding.2023 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR): | | | | | | Considering how deep the WR pool is, theres more margin for error when drafting wideouts.Still, it can be risky to load up on wideouts early in the draft, so make sure to diversify your position groups in the first few rounds. By referencing our tier list, you can develop a plan to make sure you dont reach for too many receivers when similar guys can be had a round or two later.2023 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY: | | | We'll continue to update our WR rankings throughout the preseason, so check back frequently for changes.FANTASY DRAFT STRATEGY: | | | | Rankings and tiers based on standard, non-PPR leagues. PPR leagues could have different tiers, which are highlighted throughout the text below.WR TIER 1:1 Justin Jefferson, Vikings2 Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals3 Tyreek Hill, Dolphins4 Davante Adams, Raiders5 Cooper Kupp, RamsEach WR in the top tier is a sure-fire first-round draft pick. Jefferson and Chase are the consensus top two WRs, potentially even going as the first two picks in some leagues. Well see if Jeffersons able to one-up his 1,809 receiving-yard campaign, but even if he isnt as dominant in the yardage category, hes likely to see some positive TD regre sion after hauling in just eight TDs in 2022.Jefferson led all WRs in targets (184) during his OPOY Taylor Rogers Jersey campaign, a number that should be relatively similar now that Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook are no longer Vikings. J Jettas was also the most efficient WR in terms of his expected points added (+113.1 EPA) and routinely won battles against defensive backs (51.2-percent route win rate). His 1.01 ADP is beyond justified.At WR2, Chase found a way to rank fourth among all WRs in TDs (9) last season despite playing just s12 games. While the Bengals offense has plenty of mouths to feed, Chase sits No. 1 in the pecking order, ending 22 with a 29.3-percent target share (sixth among WRs). A suming Chase avoids a multi-week setback in 23, he has a real shot to score 10-plus TDs after seeing 23 red-zone targets last season. If theres a wideout that can dethrone Jefferson as the overall WR1 in fantasy this season, its Chase.Were a bit higher on Tyreek Hill than most, as the Cheetah proved hes QB-proof after putting up 119 receptions, 1,710 receiving yards, and nine TDs in his first season with Miami. Despite Miami rolling out Tua Tagovailoa, Teddy Bridgewater, and Skylar Thompson for stretches, Hill managed to lead all WRs in target rate (33.6 percent), yards per route run (3.38), deep targets (36), and yards per team pa s attempt (2.93). If Tagovailoa manages to stay healthy, watch out. We could really see the Cheetah reach 2,000 receiving yards.Davante Adams remains in our top tier, and if it werent for his QB downgrade going from Derek Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo, the man whos owned a top-three target share in each of the past five seasons would see a higher ranking. Garoppolos inconsistent deep ball hurts Adams chances of ending the season leading all WRs in air yards as he did in 22. Adams will have similar competition for targets with Jakobi Meyers in town, but a lower projected aDOT -- coupled with a lower catchable target rate -- makes him our preseason WR4.Kupp sees a slight drop in his preseason ranking this year, coming in as our overall WR5. We're worried about his health and Matthew Stafford's health, but getting Kupp at the end of the first round still presents a buy-low opportunity.You cant go wrong selecting any of these wideouts in the first round, so if youre planning on using your earliest draft capital on a WR and you dont have the first pick, drafting Chase, Hill, Adams, or Kupp is the way to go.WR TIER 26 A.J. Brown, Eagles7 CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys8 Stefon Diggs, Bills9 Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions10 Garrett Wilson, Jets11 Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins12 Chris Olave, SaintsIf you were lucky enough to draft a Tier 1 WR, then its probably best to roll with a running back before snagging a Tier 2 WR. However, if you didnt grab a Tier 1 WR, its wise to roll with a Tier 2 stud in the second or early third round.Brown sits ahead of fellow NFC East rival CeeDee Lamb among Tier 2 wideouts, but fantasy owners really cant go wrong drafting either guy as their WR1. In standard formats, we give the edge to Brown, as he ranked fourth among all WRs in air yards last season (1,772) compared to Lambs 1,594 air yards. Brown also sported a superior 12.1 aDOT compared to Lambs 10.2 mark.Diggs, St. Brown, and Wilson are the unquestioned No. 1 receiving options on their squads, and although Diggs is likely the lone wideout with 1,500-yard potential this season, all three make for solid WR1 draft selections. We still dont truly know Wilsons upside now that he has a competent QB under center in Aaron Rodgers, as the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year could potentially double up his four-TD output in year two.St. Browns 6.2 aDOT makes him significantly more appealing in PPR formats, but his elite YAC abilities (513 YAC in 2022) still give him low-end WR1 appeal in standard formats. Detroits offense ended last season owning the third-highest drop-back EPA (0.174), and the NFC North favorites should remain an efficient unit.While his ceiling isnt as high as these other Tier 2 wideouts considering hes the Dolphins' No. 2 wideout, theres no denying Waddle's talent and elite run-after-catch abilities. Waddle sat as the overall WR7 in standard formats last season, and just because his target share isnt as hefty as the other upper-echelon WRs (21.6 percent in 22), his efficiency (+89.2 EPA, 18.1 yards per reception) more than makes up for his lack of targets.Olave is our riskiest second-tier WR, as a healthy Michael Thomas could significantly eat into his target share. Of course, Thomas seems unlikely to stay healthy at this point, and improved QB play from Derek Carr should help Olave have a year-two breakout similar to Wilson.All seven of these pa s-catchers make for solid fantasy WR1s and have top-five upside this season, so you really cant go wrong with any as your top receiver.WR TIER 313 Amari Cooper, Browns14 Deebo Samuel, 49ers15 DeAndre Hopkins, Titans16 DeVonta Smith, Eagles17 Tee Higgins, Bengals18 Terry Jake Odorizzi Jersey McLaurin, Commanders19 Calvin Ridley, Jaguars20 Keenan Allen, Chargers21 DK Metcalf, SeahawksTier 3 is littered with wideouts who can put forth WR1 weeks any given Sunday, but each wideout has some mitigating factors that ultimately lower their ceilings. You can find most of these wideouts in rounds three to four, making for reliable WR2s. Its probably not ideal to rely on any of these wideouts as your WR1 unle s you scooped up some valuable RBs or selected Travis Kelce in the first round.Amari Cooper ended 2022 as the overall WR8 in standard formats, but he recently picked up an undisclosed injury during training camp on top of underdoing core muscle surgery this offseason. Add in Elijah Moores increased role within the Browns offense, and Cooper likely ends 23 outside the top 10 in standard scoring.Samuel did garner a team-best 25.5-percent target share in the six games Brock Purdy started last season, but given his backfield usage took a sharp decline last season along with his owning the 102nd highest aDOT (4.2), Samuel sits firmly as a WR2 with le s value in PPR leagues. Still, we know how dangerous he can be if he stays healthy.Although Smith and Higgins reside in two of the leagues most potent offenses, being the No. 2 receiving option lowers their chances of outproducing their preseason rankings (barring injuries to Chase and Brown). The jurys still out on Sam Howells effectivene s as a pa ser, so theres risk involved in drafting McLaurin, especially with Jahan Dotsons role and target share likely increasing, as well.Ridley and Allen are two undervalued WRs in this tier, as some fantasy owners are overlooking Ridley following his year-long suspension. In his last full season in 20, he was the overall WR4 in standard formats. However, with Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram already established targets for Trevor Lawrence, it's unclear how many targets Ridley will see.Allen doesnt have the same appeal in standard formats as he does in PPR, but he continues to fly under the radar heading into his 11th season. After returning from a hamstring injury, Allen ranked as the overall WR6 from weeks 11 to 18, and with a steady QB in Justin Herbert, Allen could outperform his ADP. Still, both WRs are in talented WR rooms, so their week-to-week production could see some volatility.Metcalfs in line for some positive TD regre sion after hauling in just six receiving TDs on 27 red-zone targets, but he could see his 25.5-percent target share take a hit with prized rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba garnering his fair share of targets.Ultimately, you can live with one of these pa s-catchers as your WR1 (again, especially if you drafted Kelce), but you're going to feel a bit behind the eight-ball at the position. That might cause you to reach for a Tier 4 receiver a round too early and throw your draft out of whack, so plan accordingly.WR TIER 422 Mike Williams, Chargers23 Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers24 Mike Evans, Buccaneers25 Tyler Lockett, Seahawks26 Drake London, Falcons27 Christian Watson, PackersTier 4 po se ses plenty of talented high-upside wideouts, showing off how deep the WR position really is. Each Tier 4 wide sits firmly as a WR2 despite four WRs in this tier etched as their teams No. 1 wideout. Grabbing any of these wideouts as your WR2 in the fifth or sixth round makes sense, but if you stock up on QB, RBs, and TE early and wait for one of these guys to be your top wideout, you're really taking a risk.While injuries are always a concern, theres no denying Williams talent and deep-ball prowe s in the Chargers offense. Williams 9.6 yards per target in 2022 makes him an enticing draft selection in standard formats despite plenty of competition for targets alongside Austin Ekeler, Allen, and first-round rookie Quentin Johnston.Aiyuks in a similar spot as Williams, as hes an elite athlete flexed within an offense featuring plenty of talented weapons, seemingly capping his ceiling. Aiyuks coming off a career-high 1,015 receiving-yard campaign, recording eight TDs while finishing as the WR15.Evans, London, and Watson will likely lead their squads in target share this season, giving them some early-round appeal as solid WR2s. Their offenses arent the flashiest, which is why theyre ranked relatively low despite being their teams top pa s-catching options. Shaky QB play likely limits their chances of finishing as top-15 fantasy WRs, but theres a chance one of these WRs exceeds their preseason expectations if things break right.If youre able to draft any of these wideouts as your WR3, theres a good chance youll boast the best receiving corps in your league. Even as a WR2, these Tier 4 WRs make for reliable pa s-catching options that can help your team make a playoff run.WR TIER 5:28 Christian Kirk, Jaguars29 George Pickens, Steelers30 Gabe Davis, Bills31 D.J. Moore, Bears32 Chris Godwin, Buccaneers33 Brandin Cooks, Cowboys34 Michael Pittman Jr., Colts35 Diontae Johnson, Steelers36 Jerry Jeudy, Broncos37 Marquise Brown, CardinalsTier 5 houses lower-end WR2s and high-end WR3s that will likely go in rounds five to seven. These receivers profile as complementary pieces to your higher-valued wideouts. Theres plenty of value with this tier of pa s-catchers, as some of the games most underrated wideouts, like Christian Kirk, Chris Godwin, and Diontae Johnson, sit as Tier 5 guys.Kirks looking to build off his career year in his second season with the Jaguars (1,108 yards, eight TDs), and if it werent for Ridleys arrival, Kirk would have ranked as a Tier 4 or even Tier 3 wideout. Godwin doesnt have the luxury of catching pa ses from the GOAT, but hes proven to produce fantasy-worthy numbers with any QB under center. Johnson was somehow held without a TD catch in 2022 despite seeing 18 red-zone targets while running a route on 98.1 percent of the Steelers pa sing plays. He bumps up a tier in PPR formats.Elsewhere in Tier 5, fellow Steeler George Pickens has a chance to record 1,000 in his first full season catching pa ses from Kenny Pickett, making him a relatively undervalued fantasy wideout. The Gabe Davis hype has simmered after an up-and-down 22, as his volatility makes him more of a WR3 than a reliable WR2. He can carry your team on any given week, but other weeks, youll wish you left him on your bench.D.J. Moore could thrive with Justin Fields as his new QB, considering Moore excels as a downfield threat (29 deep targets in 22) and Fields has shown hes an above-average deep-ball thrower. However, there's more competition for targets in Chicago than many realize (Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth), and the Bears' pa sing offense hasn't been consistent with Fields under center.Similarly, Michael Pittman Jr. sees his preseason ranking drop with some uncertainty about how effective the Colts aerial attack will be under presumptive QB1 Anthony Richardson.Dont sleep on Marquise Brown after he put up respectable numbers when healthy last season. With DeAndre Hopkins now in Tenne see, Brown could be the best value pick of this tier, at least once Kyler Murray (knee) returns.The key with this tier is not reaching. Sure, things seemingly drop off a bit after these receivers, at least in terms of "safety," but it's not as if there won't be breakouts among the Tier 6 and 7 receivers. Ideally, you'll have three WRs by the time this tier runs out, but if your draft has drastic WR runs, don't be afraid to mine for value at other positions.WR TIER 638 Jordan Addison, Vikings39 Jahan Dotson, Commanders40 JuJu Smith-Schuster, Patriots41 Courtland Sutton, Broncos42 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks43 Rashod Bateman, Ravens44 Michael Thomas, Saints45 Kadarius Toney, Chiefs46 Treylon Burks, TitansThere are still plenty of valuable wideouts on the board within Tier 6, starting with Addison. He might not start the season with a high snap share, but expect Addison to play a key role in the Vikings' pa s-heavy offense for the stretch run of the fantasy season, giving him some value as a mid-round draft pick. Fellow rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba might not have played much in his final season at Ohio State, but hell likely emerge as a trusted option for Geno Smith in year one.Dotson scored a rookie-leading seven TDs in just 12 games last season, and a similar TD output isnt as crazy as it sounds if the second-year Penn State product plays close to a full season. Well see how JuJu Smith-Schuster fairs in New England, but there isnt much competition for targets in Bill OBriens offense, so drafting him as your WR3 or 4 isnt a bad move.Its also not a bad move to draft Rashod Bateman as your WR3 or 4. Although injuries are always a concern with Bateman and fellow Tier 6 WRs Michael Thomas and Kadarius Toney, their lack of action in 2022 results in Max Kepler Jersey a downtick in their preseason ADPs, giving them some draft value. If Sean Paytons able to resurrect Ru sell Wilson, then Courtland Sutton could be another ADP gem after a disappointing 22.Tier 6 offers plenty of buy-low candidates wholl sit as fringe starters, and if you draft right, you could potentially package two Tier 6 wides to improve your team elsewhere during the season.WR TIER 747 Quentin Johnston, Chargers48 Jakobi Meyers, Raiders49 Allan Lazard, Jets50 Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chiefs51 Zay Jones, Jaguars52 Elijah Moore, Browns53 Rondale Moore, Cardinals54 Jameson Williams, Lions55 Odell Beckham Jr., Ravens56 Nico Collins, Texans57 Michael Gallup, Cowboys58 Zay Flowers, Ravens59 DJ Chark, Panthers60 Tyler Boyd, Bengals61 Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns62 Skyy Moore, Chiefs63 Curtis Samuel, Commanders64 Marvin Mims, BroncosNow that weve reached Tier 7, its time to look for bench depth and bye-week/injury fill-ins. Theres a chance some of these wideouts sit as your WR3 or flexes, but youll probably want to draft these pa s-catchers as insurance policies in the middle to late-middle rounds.If Chargers rookie Quentin Johnston sees a respectable snap share, he could have the most upside in this group, but its hard to envision a scenario where he significantly outproduces his ADP barring an injury to L.A.s top two wideouts. Lazard isnt the flashiest of receivers, but given his strong rapport with Aaron Rodgers, he makes for a smart bench add with upside. Williams is another upside pick in Tier 6 given hes still a relatively unknown commodity in the fantasy world and sees his ADP drop a bit due to his six-game suspension.Williams fills the role of ex-Lion DJ Chark, who likely ends up as Bryce Youngs go-to downfield receiver in Carolina. Speaking of downfield threats, Ravens rookie Zay Flowers can take the top off defenses and pairs nicely alongside fellow Raven Odell Beckham Jr. in a revamped Baltimore offense.The Moores (Elijah, Rondale, and Skyy) all profile as underrated bench pieces with WR3/flex potential. Elijah likely ends the season as the Browns No. 2 receiver behind Amari Cooper, as hes primed for a bounce-back season after an underwhelming end to his tenure in New York. Rondale routinely draws the attention of Arizona's QBs and is in for an increased role sans Hopkins if he can stay healthy. Skyys primed for a snap promotion in a Chiefs offense ranking toward the top of the league in vacated targets, giving him some flex appeal.Boyd, Gallup, and Samuel wont wow you, but as third options in their respective offenses, they're an injury away from being a weekly starter with consistent volume. You can't go wrong drafting one as a bench stash.WR TIER 865 Marvin Jones Jr., Lions66 Hunter Renfrow, Raiders67 Adam Thielen, Panthers68 Joshua Palmer, Chargers69 Isaiah Hodgins, Giants70 Khalil Shakir, Bills71 Van Jefferson, Rams72 Romeo Doubs, Packers73 Wan'Dale Robinson, Giants74 Rashid Shaheed, Saints75 K.J. Osborn, Vikings76 Allen Robinson II, Steelers77 Rashee Rice, Chiefs78 Tank Dell, Texans79 John Metchie III, TexansTheres not much to get amped up about in Tier 8, as most of these guys will go undrafted in shallower leagues while going in the later rounds of deeper ones. Marvin Jones Jr. leads this tier, returning to Detroit after a two-year stint in Jacksonville and seemingly filling in for the suspended Jameson Williams to start the year. While Jones Jr., isnt the most exciting wideout, Tier 8 po se ses some deep sleeper candidates in rookies Rashee Rice and Tank Dell. While hes technically not a rookie, Texans WR John Metchie III qualifies as one in our book.Theres a chance your leaguemates overlook Rice, Dell, and Metchie III in this tier, opting to take a "safer" veteran like Adam Thielen, Allen Robinson II, or Hunter Renfrow due to their past production, but in the late rounds, it can be wise to draft these relatively unknown commodities.Van Jefferson and WanDale Robinson are two of the more underrated wideouts in this tier, as both players dealt with multi-week injuries in 22, resulting in a drop to their ADP and preseason expectations.Second-year wides Romeo Doubs and Khalil Shakir figure to see an increased workload this season, making them appealing late-round draft selections. That said, these Tier 8 wideouts profile more as bench depth and injury fill-ins, but its still key to finish your draft strong with solid depth pieces.WR TIER 980 Darnell Mooney, Bears81 Alec Pierce, Colts82 Chase Claypool, Bears83 DeVante Parker, Patriots84 Robert Woods, Texans85 Mack Hollins, Falcons86 Darius Slayton, Giants87 Josh Downs, Colts88 Mecole Hardman, Jets89 Greg Dortch, Cardinals90 Isaiah McKenzie, Colts91 Jonathan Mingo, Panthers92 Tyquan Thornton, Patriots93 Cedric Tillman, Browns94 Charlie Jones, Bengals95 Ru sell Gage, Buccaneers96 Puka Nacua, Rams97 Terrace Marshall Jr., Panthers98 Trent Sherfield, Bills99 Jalin Hyatt, Giants100 Parris Campbell, GiantsTier 9 sits as a de-facto best-of-the-rest list, and while some of these WRs nestled in the final tier had real fantasy appeal earlier in past seasons (Darnell Mooney, Robert Woods, DeVante Parker, Mecole Hardman), their diminished 2023 roles make them mostly watchlist candidates.Similar to Tier 8, we are intrigued by these lower-ranked rookies (Josh Downs, Cedric Tillman, Charlie Jones, Puka Nacua, Jalin Hyatt) as potential late-season flex plays given their talent profiles. That said, you have to remain patient if opting to select a Tier 9 rookie, as it will likely take several weeks for their snap share to reach a fantasy-worth level.When rounding out your roster, we recommend drafting for upside as opposed to stability, so well gladly take Charlie Jones given hes catching pa ses from Joe Burrow over a more established WR like Terrace Marshall.
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